Draftsmas Eve 2025 - A Value-Meets-Need Primer

Dear Readers, it has been far too long! For those close to me, you know that I have some major life changes on the horizon, and my time and efforts have been focused elsewhere; however, on the night before Draftsmas, I wanted to gather some Bills-related thoughts that I’d been mulling over, and offer a few tools through which you–as fans of the Buffalo Bills–can approach the draft. This year, I didn’t have time to go into the metrics on each draft dart-throw; I didn’t read charts until my eyes bled, and I didn’t read countless draft-related articles. 

But I have been keeping my ear to the rail. 

On Joe Marino’s 4/23/25 Locked on Bills podcast, he reported that Brandon Beane believes the defensive line–both inside and out–is the strongest position group of the 2025 NFL Draft. If we take this to be a true reflection of Beane’s feelings on the draft talent pool, and channel this through the lens of Joe Marino’s (Locked on Bills) horizontal draft board, while reflecting on this in light of positional value (in terms of average NFL cap number per position), we can construct an informative lens through which to view how the Bills might value position groups. 

For starters, Marino broke down his player talent rankings in a horizontal draft board, that I encourage you to peruse. For our purposes, I wanted to narrow our focus on the first three rounds, and on the defensive side of the ball. Here’s a screenshot I’d like to refer to:

Given our need for multiple day one defensive starters from this draft, I’m going to rule out the “Top Half R1” players, as acquiring any of them would likely preclude us from filling our needs on D. And since we are lacking a 3rd round pick, we can boil it down even more to the following list:

Now, let’s run these players through a little Capology 101. None of these players are being paid an NFL dime, yet; however, it’s worth considering positional value, when you’re making premium-value picks. Let’s take a look at each of these three position groups, as they are paid in the NFL. For this, I’ll refer to Spotrac’s Top 10 (as a cap-hit) NFL players at each position: DE, DT, and CB:

1 - T.J. Watt (PIT, OLB) - $30,418,694

2 - Maxx Crosby (LV, DE) - $30,253,250

3 - Joey Bosa (LAC, OLB) - $26,111,667

4 - Khalil Mack (LAC, OLB) - $25,595,000

5 - Montez Sweat (CHI, DE/OLB) - $25,085,200

6 - Harold Landry (TEN, OLB) - $23,800,000

7 - DeMarcus Lawrence (DAL, DE) - $20,445,000

8 - Myles Garrett (CLE, DE) - $20,168,895

9 - Trey Hendrickson (CIN, DE) - $20,166,666

10 - Bradley Chubb (MIA, OLB) - $15,813,841

Top 10 Cap Hit Average for DE/OLB (2024) = $23,785,821.30

1 - Kenny Clark (GB, DT) - $26,365,000

2 - Jeffery Simmons (TEN, DT) - $21,652,932

3 - Daron Payne (WAS, DT) - $21,610,000

4 - Jonathan Allen (WAS, DT) - $20,970,588

5 - Vita Vea (TB, DT) - $20,965,054

6 - Quinnen Williams (NYJ, DT) - $20,400,000

7 - Grady Jarrett (ATL, DT) - $20,375,000

8 - Dexter Lawrence (NYG, DT) - $14,340,482

9 - D.J. Jones (DEN, DT) - $12,958,334

10 - Sheldon Rankins (CIN, DT) - $11,705,882

Top 10 Cap Hit Average for DT (2024) = $19,134,327.20

1 - Jaire Alexander (GB, CB) - $23,981,645

2 - Marlon Humphrey (BAL, CB) - $22,877,800

3 - Charvarius Ward (SF, CB) - $18,401,000

4 - D.J. Reed (NYJ, CB) - $15,636,165

5 - Jamel Dean (TB, CB) - $14,666,343

6 - Trevon Diggs (DAL, CB) - $14,117,647

7 - Jaylon Johnson (CHI, CB) - $13,000,000

8 - Jonathan Jones (NE, CB) - $12,573,529

9 - Denzel Ward (CLE, CB) - $12,138,918

10 - Byron Murphy (MIN, CB) - $10,911,754

Top 10 Cap Hit Average for CB (2024) = $15,830,480.10

So, in a way, the NFL values DE/OLB at a rate of $4 million per year more than DT’s, and $8 million per year more than CB’s. And the NFL values DT’s at a rate of $4 million per year more than CB’s.

If we compare that with the number of players at each of these positions that Joe Marino ranked in each round–names aside–he has the following:

4 Late Round 1 DE’s 3 Late Round 1 DT’s 1 Late Round 1 CB

3 Round 2 DE’s 4 Round 2 DT’s 5 Round 2 CB’s

If we have ONE first round pick, the NFL values DE’s highest of these position groups, and there are FOUR Late Round 1 DE’s that may be available, those numbers alone would encourage the Buffalo Bills to pick a DE with their 1st pick.

Since there are more DT’s (7 versus 6) with a higher average round value (Average Round Value = 1.57) than CB’s (Average Round Valve = 1.83), then–sheerly by the numbers–we should select a DT with our first pick in the 2nd round, and a CB with our later pick in the 2nd round.

I realize this is a hyper-simplification, and that we are leaving red flags (i.e. Medical, character, age, measurables, etc…) out of the equation, but again, I just wanted to take a moment and break down need, positional value, talent ranking, and available talent. In a draft season ringing with the cacophony of sound-bytes, talking heads, and countless mock drafts, sometimes removing the emotion, the flair, and the fever-pitch from the media, and just looking at the draft options a little differently may afford us some clarity.

Let’s hope the Bills make wise decisions, this year. No more Elamic swing-and-misses. No more Cody Fords or Sammy Watkins. No E.J. Manuels or Trent Edwards. Let’s get it right, McBeane!

And Let’s Go Bills!

--Tim Avery - 4/23/2025